tetlock
galen: this medical drink does not cure only incurable cases

hedgehogs/foxes
kahneman/tversky

resolution/calibration

reverting to mean

base rate

superforecasters 30% better than experts

outside view
merging inside/outside view

epistemological vs. ailiatoey uncertainty

givers (info)

superteams - avoiding groupthink
leaders dilemma: superforecaster teams are not leaders

prussian leadership manual: deliberate, decide, vigorously implement

Auftragstaktik
Kahneman: scope insensitivity
Taleb: black swan, fat tail (not normal) distribtion

declines towards chance 5years out

wisdom of the crowd

Brier score