taleb
interpreting is automatic and occasionally a disease, leads to gambling:
seeing patterns where there are none
stories as a way to reduce complexity
myths as therapy

news sites check facts, but weave stories, narratives may be misleading

confirmation bias, silent evidence, narrative fallacy

luddic fallacy
belief perseverence

84% of frenchmen believe that their lovemaking put then in top half of
french lovers

to predict the future you must know it

billiard ball - 9th strike, need to factor in the gravitational pull of
body standing next to it, 56th strike: every atom in the universe

backward and forward process and prediction

demand for certainty is an intellectual vice

yogi berra: you need to be very prepared if you don't know where you are
going because you might not get there

cumulative advantage

people you meet on the way up, you will meet again on the way down

mandelbrodian distribution

Scientist is a tool for a library to making another library

confusing perspective and retrospective

ergotic vs. non-ergotic system
funambulism

iatrogenics