human brain can store up to 3TB of information

out of sample problem

wet bias in weather forecasting
7+ days weather forecast is no better, sometimes worse, than climatology

it is beneficial to err on the side if rain: humans forgive unexpected sun

18th century lisbon earthquake prompted secular philosophy

economists are overconfident in gdp forecasting. The more established they are, the more conservative the forecast

feedback loops, policies used on basis of forecasts

whitehouse forecast is the least accurate

57% accuracy for the best pro sports gambler

past oerformance is not indicative of future results (stock market)

climate vs. weather
statistical vs. physical model

solar cycle